Tme for a new rant. This has been bubbling up for too long and I need to let some of it out, here. So, away we go.

I reject “progress” and I reject “progressive thought” and, while I am at it, I reject “change”.

I choose old, tired, shopworn, out of fashion, boring, conservative, modes of thought and behavior.

I am not persuaded that progress in social thought or behavior has brought enough good with the bad.

I reject the notions:

*that sexual promiscuity is without consequence, either physical or emotional;

*that tattoos are acceptable on anyone not a veteran;

*that television should be my guide in choosing my own personal behavior;

*that music that calls woman bitches is socially redeeming and valuable protest music;

*that we should not be permitted to make value judgments;

*that the Left is correct in failing to protest the position of gays or women in the Islamic world;

*that no one on the Left appears to seriously recognize the significant cognitive dissonance in wearing t-shirts like, “Gays for Palestine”;

*that childrenÂ’s literature should be filled with teaching moments to glorify and reinforce diversity;

*that some abstract notion of statistically tracked racial diversity is valuable while diversity of opinion is not important;

*that “Unity” (yes, Sen. Obama, I’m talking to you) is ipso facto valuable and not, in fact, a fascist concept designed to stifle debate and freedom of expression;

*that someone’s “hurt feelings” is more important than my right to freedom of speech and, maybe more importantly, freedom AFTER speech;

*that parents abdicate their responsibilities to give their children moral guidance and instead transfer that responsibility to a school where such things are decided by a committee and implemented by books designed to meet the California market;

*that self-esteem is built by endless and meaningless praise, instead of struggle and accomplishment;

*that some banks are too big to fail (I just hope mine is not among them);

*that it is never appropriate to use your fists to settle an argument;

*that a nuclear Iran is a neutral force on the world stage (please, how can anyone seriously believe this?); and, finally (for now),

*I reject the notion that the United States is not the single greatest force for good among world actors today.

So, if you disagree, leave me alone in my quiet corner where my children donÂ’t watch television, are not permitted near a computer, and have to read or go outside and run around to play elaborate made up games. I promise you that my kids will be ready to help pick up the pieces after you mess up our society.

Posted by: Random Penseur at 10:52 AM | Comments (28) | Add Comment
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Free associations come most freely and with the least inhibitions early in the morning, before the coffee kicks in.

I was up early (not that I had any choice in the matter) and watching Sports Center with the two boys when one of the anchors referred to KC Royal pitcher Gil Meche (pronounced "Mesh"). I immediately hit the free association button and thought:

Damn, he must be the first Sumerian to make it to the Show. Figures he'd break in as a pitcher, everyone knows Gilgamesh could not hit the long ball."

Wonder where Enkidu is playing these days?

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This video was put together by a 15 year old girl.

God bless America and all of our servicewomen and servicemen in harm's way everywhere:

Posted by: Random Penseur at 01:54 PM | Comments (1) | Add Comment
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As of Sunday night, Bear Stearns basically ceased to exist as JP Morgan Chase purchased it for $2 a share. This may be the bargain of the century, by the way. The building alone is supposedly worth $8 a share. The CDO Book, which is illiquid and not tradeable, and therefore not really possible to value, is apparently performing. This means that the debt obligations which were sliced up to create the debt instruments are still paying out. In other words, while you can't trade 'em, at its most basic, people are paying the debts that make them up. If the instruments pay out and perform, it will be one hell of a coup for JP Morgan Chase.

Of course, the roughly 14,000 people of Bear and the investors who bought Bear are fucked. The retirement portfolios made up of Bear stock are ash. The jobs are questionable. The investments are up in smoke.

But there is still liquidity.

I do not share the view of the fellow this morning in my train station. I was buying my paper and overheard the following exchange as a man came in:

Woman: Hey! What are you doing here this early [5 a.m.]? I never see you this early.

Man: I always come in early when the earth is about to end.

Who was it who said that eternal nothingness was ok so long as you were dressed for it?

It is going to get a lot uglier out there before it gets better.

Posted by: Random Penseur at 08:56 AM | Comments (2) | Add Comment
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William F. Buckley, Jr. has died. It is a tremendous loss to the nation and to anyone who values precision in language and passion in defense of conservative beliefs.

I was privileged to have spent many hours with him, in email correspondence, in telephone calls, and at a dinner. We were not friends, mind you, the distance in accomplishment and age was too great. But I respected him tremendously.

In tribute, I give you the retrospective of the best of his interviews on Charlie Rose:

My condolences to his family.

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November 11, this Sunday, is Veterans' Day. In Europe, it is known as Armistice Day, to mark the end of World War I. I just returned from leading a wreath presentation here in NYC to mark the day, a bit early, but still. I hope that today (or Sunday) you take a moment and, at minimum, think of those who served our nation and think of them with gratitude. Better still, thank a veteran for his or her service. They have paid a price, some of them have paid the ultimate price, so that you could enjoy your life and so that your children could grow up in safety and security.

Thank a Veteran. You'll feel better, too.

Posted by: Random Penseur at 03:04 PM | Comments (3) | Add Comment
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Someone sent me this excellent (totally safe for work) video of a mother's daily words all scrunched down together. I think it could apply to a father, too, by the way:

Posted by: Random Penseur at 01:06 PM | Comments (1) | Add Comment
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Today marks the beginning of Labor Day weekend, the traditional end *sob* of summer. The train was not crowded and the parking lot was empty. My usual lunch takeout place was not too busy. The financial markets are going to close early, I was told. All in all, the quiet beginning to a quiet weekend.

Except, no one told my clients and adversaries. I have not had my quiet morning to draft an operating agreement with a nifty little life insurance buy out provision like I had hoped. Nope, I have been on the phone almost without pause: conference call with a court; settlement talks; negotiations on a job offer letter for a senior executive; discussions with a valuation expert out West (boy, was he up early); emails and document review and telephone calls to get out an "urgent" cease and desist letter. Good grief, people. Stop calling me. Go to the beach. Get an ice cream. This will all keep for a weekend.

Honoring Labor Day by actually performing labor is not at all what I had in mind.

I hope you all have a lovely (and if you are driving) and safe weekend!

Posted by: Random Penseur at 11:43 AM | Comments (1) | Add Comment
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HereÂ’s a passage from a book I was reading that I found eerily familiar, especially considering the current climate, and especially when I removed certain words. What do you think of the following (which war):

But _____________ success during the next nine months, again mainly in the East, discouraged so many ______ voters with the prospect of ever winning the war that the Democrats made great gains in congressional elections and potentially threatened the _____ administrationÂ’s ability to continue the war.

____ was an avid reader of _______ newspapers smuggled across the lines. From them he gleaned not only bits of military intelligence but also — and more important in this case — information about ________ politics and the growing disillusionment with the war among Democrats and despair among Republicans. One of _____ purposes in the _________ invasion was to intensify this ________ demoralization in advance of the congressional elections in the fall of ____. He hoped that ________ military success would encourage antiwar candidates. If Democrats could gain control of the House, it might cripple the ______ administration’s ability to carry on the war.

* * *

Bet you didnÂ’t think that the author was talking about the Civil War, right? HereÂ’s the full quote:

But Confederate success during the next nine months, again mainly in the East, discouraged so many Northern voters with the prospect of ever winning the war that the Democrats made great gains in congressional elections and potentially threatened the Lincoln administrationÂ’s ability to continue the war.

Lee was an avid reader of Northern newspapers smuggled across the lines. From them he gleaned not only bits of military intelligence but also — and more important in this case — information about Northern politics and the growing disillusionment with the war among Democrats and despair among Republicans. One of Lee’s purposes in the Maryland invasion was to intensify this Northern demoralization in advance of the congressional elections in the fall of 1862. He hoped that Confederate military success would encourage antiwar candidates. If Democrats could gain control of the House, it might cripple the Lincoln administration’s ability to carry on the war.

From McPhersonÂ’s new book, This Mighty Scourge: Perspectives on the Civil War.

Posted by: Random Penseur at 10:21 AM | Comments (5) | Add Comment
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I was struck down on the train home on Friday night with a nasty flu like bug. I still feel poorly but nothing like as badly as I did on Saturday and Friday night where I alternated between fever wracked dreams and spasms that turned my whole body into one large muscle cramp. It was not fun.

I did manage to install myself on the coach and watch most of the Yankees-Red Sox game on Saturday. I sat there, zoning in and out, with chills and hot flash spells, with a brain rendered completely defenseless to the blandishments of those seeking to improve my life through the judicious exercise of consumer power, and I observed. And I came to some tentative conclusions about either (1) who watches afternoon big league baseball on a Saturday; (2) who the advertisers think is watching big league ball; (3) what is of the most serious moment to those viewers; or, (4) what the advertisers would like the viewers to feel is of the most serious moment.

First, these are men (I think) who drive trucks. Not your silly imports, but American made trucks. They take these trucks into the wilderness or they use them in furtherance of important agricultural or major construction jobs. Or, perhaps, that is what they'd like to be associated with. No matter. Trucks are important.

They watch NASCAR or are simply being urged to do so. Lots of commercials for NASCAR. I cannot square it with the truck thing, but that may be because I am more of the effete Eastern elite than anything else.

They drink beer, but primarily light beer. This means they are either concerned about their weight or are getting older. I think maybe it could be both.

They also may like golf. More on that later.

They probably own their own houses. Another clue that they are older. Why? Because there are grave concerns about lawn care, if you believe the advertisers, that is. Concern about grass and weeds.

They are also being pitched things like power tools (another clue to home ownership) and auto parts (another gender clue, I feel).

They have penis problems. Either in achieving and maintaining acceptable erections and thus feeling fulfilled in life or problems in passing water through said instrument. Another good clue as to the perceived age of the viewer. There are prostate problems and ED problems and plenty of drugs out there that will allow you intimate post coital moments with happy, satisfied mates and also allow you to get out there for long kayak trips, far from the urinal, with your best adventure seeking baby boomer pals. These people also play golf since there each potential drug consumer is also directed to see the advertisements in Golf Digest. I think that I will not play golf as it is not clear to me whether the penile dysfunctions existed in men prior to playing golf or were brought about by prolonged exposure to gold clubs, ugly clothes, and mass quantities of pesticides used in maintaining those emerald greens. Either way, I value my own penis too much to take the risk that appears to be endemic to playing golf.

So, watching the game is not for me or people like me, I gather. It is a wonder that I enjoyed it all.

Now, we interrupt this blogging break to return to bed. I feel another nap coming on.

Posted by: Random Penseur at 09:04 AM | Comments (6) | Add Comment
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I was kind of hoping that now that the sub prime mortgage market has imploded and taken the Dow Jones and S&P indices with it, that the amount of mortgage solication email s*p*_m I received on an hourly basis would recede. No such luck.

Man, these emails are like voices reaching to you from the grave.

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Our trial settled today in the middle of the plaintiff's direct case. The settlement got put on the record, the parties were voir-dired, the case was closed, and we all went to lunch.

At Appleby's.

I approached the front door with some trepidation, having never been inside one of these places before. I am a bit of a snob when it comes to food. I like really fine restaurants or real dives or diners. I don't like places that try to re-create some odd fascimile of a dive bar. Either be a dive bar or don't. Also, I am sceptical of chains, of places where the food is created in some corporate development office, test marketed in Toledo (pace, Toledo, nothing meant by it), and then re-assembled in White Plains. Besides, I wonder how these places contribute to the growing obesity / pre-diabetes problem we're having.

Well, now that I've eaten there, I'd say my snobism is confirmed and I think these places contribute a lot to obesity.

One, the snob thing. I ordered for lunch the grilled salmon caesar salad, one of the healthiest choices I could locate. Fine. Overly dressed, but fine. I was not too surprised to learn that extra anchovies would not be made available to me. I was shocked to learn that the restaurant did not have a pepper mill so that a little fresh ground pepper could liven up the salad. So, they ain't really cooking for someone like me. And I could tell, based on the surprised look on our waitress's face, that people don't really ask for fresh pepper very often.

Two, the obesity thing. I drank diet coke with my repast. My companions, the same. As they finished the overly large drinks, the empties were immediately whisked away to be replaced by new overly large drinks. If my companions were drinking real coke or some other full sugar soda, they would have consumed enough empty calories to account for their entire day's quota. They also would have made the sugar companies wicked happy. If this is how middle America is drinking when they eat at this place, the obesity thing is just gonna keep getting worse and worse.

I think I could do without a return trip. And for the record, my soda was the only one at the table not in need of a refill. I could barely manage the giganto cup they served me the first time.

Posted by: Random Penseur at 07:12 PM | Comments (3) | Add Comment
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1 That obesity thing is scary, and alongside it diabetes. I've seen ads on tv I see talking about how 1 in 5 people has or will have diabetes, and really, how do you get diabetes? Usually through incorrect diet, constant intake of high sugar and other nasty foods. The food chains are feeding the diabetes machine: bigger portions, bigger drinks, unending pop, etc. If the environment isn't gonna get us, we will get ourselves in the end. "I'm too tired to make supper/lunch/breakfest" is fine but when we're doing it 5 days a week? That's a problem.

Posted by: Oorgo at August 11, 2006 11:18 AM (2uqyw)

2 I'm gonna take umbrage at the "Middle America" business. We do have decent restaurants out here in the hinterlands, so we're not all reduced to eating at Appleby's or TGIFridays. That said, I agree with your portion size complaints. My theory on it is this: we've shifted from an agrarian/laborer society to one where people sit in chairs all day long, but nowhere along the way did people learn that they should eat less as a result. Your food habits are learned at an early age, and they're very hard to ditch. You should go and eat at my Mother in law's house. Oy. Despite loud protests from everyone in the family, she still thinks everyone needs to eat as if they've had a long day scything wheat behind them. There's so much food it's disgusting. She wouldn't know how to put a salad together if a head of lettuce came up and bit her on the bum. All the vegetables are canned (and it's ALWAYS corn)so there's not a lot of nutrition going on there. Then there's the main course, which is either chicken or hamburger based. Unless it's swiss steak night (shudder) and then flank steak (woo!) has been purchased. And there's the mashed potatoes. At every dinner there's homemade mashed potatoes. With a big puddle of melted margarine in the middle and a dash of paprika for color. And then, just for healthiness' sake, there's some sort of cut up fruit and cottage cheese. It's just WAY too much food, but you can't really blame her too much because that's how she and the father-in-law ate when they were growing up. It's how she was taught to cook. And when they had a farm, well, it made sense to eat like that because of the labor involved with keeping a five hundred acre property up. Ironically enough, it's turning out to be a big problem. My grandmother-in-law (the MIL's mother)has both Alzheimers and Parkinsons---the double whammy. Her daily state of well-being is very much dependent upon proper nutrition (as in it's the difference between her getting lost in her own hallway or not)and she fed Grandpa like this for years, hence this is what his palate prefers. Grandma, on the other hand, has never been fond of chicken fried steak and the like, but cooked it for him. Now that he's doing the cooking, this is what he makes---and she won't eat it. He's stubborn enough to insist that she not waste perfectly good food and he refuses to cook her anything else. It's sad, I know, but no amount of cajoling Grandpa into cooking something different for Grandma is going to work. He just recovered from his own bout with colon cancer and food finally tastes good to him again. Cross your fingers and hope that they get into assisted living sooner rather than later!

Posted by: Kathy at August 11, 2006 03:24 PM (HiYDm)

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Posted by: Nana at August 13, 2008 11:50 PM (/IUgG)

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This award goes to Kathy's husband who caused one elderly barking moonbat to flap her protest sign at him in great agitation as he challanged her world view. She also might have not approved of his cigar, but that's just me.

Kathy's observations on the pacifists who dine and dash at the table of life are worth a peek, too.

I'm gonna use this one as soon as I next get the chance.

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I spent some time today, on behalf of my wife, dealing with the Department of Homeland Security, Bureau of Citizenship and Immigration. What used to be known as INS or, depending on the sweat shop you were in, La Migra.

Ready to be shocked?

You sure?

Ok. Other than having to spend 5-10 minutes on hold, it was an exceptionally easy and pleasant experience. I had to speak to two different people to have my questions answered about a routine form, but both people were absolutely polite, energetic, and helpful. They had all the answers to my questions and were very patient. Both, by the way, were audibly taken aback when I convey happy new year wishes. Both, also, spoke English like you rarely hear anymore – carefully enunciated and crisp, so that if you were a non-native speaker, you stood a much better shot at understanding them.

However, even though they spoke so well and were so very helpful, I despair of most immigrantsÂ’ chances of figuring out the forms all by themselves. It took two lawyers in my office (me and someone much older and smarter) the better part of 40 minutes before I phoned. And even then, the older and smarter lawyer was wrong in his advice, as it turns out and as he was gracious enough to admit. All told, figure it took over an hour of billable time by two highly experienced professionals to fill out a simple form and to get some of it wrong anyway. I feel so sorry for those unfortunate non-native English speakers who have to do this kind of thing all alone.

That said, can you believe anyone is writing about how great an experience it was to deal with the Bureau of Citizenship and Immigration?

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I may be repeating myself here and I am prepared to take that risk (even if I am too lazy to search my own archieves to check). Let's start with one simple proposition that I hope we can all agree on: English is a beautiful and expressive language. It is also a large language and, at times, a very elastic language, growing all the time. Its also a lot of fun.

Sometimes, it is used poorly. Sometimes it is used pretentiously, to make the speaker appear either smarter or better educated than the speaker really is. It is this to which I address my objections today.

Let's begin with a common and annoying mistake.

Method and methodology are not synonyms.

Method is, according to Answer. com (not better or worse than any other place to go for a definition): "A means or manner of procedure, especially a regular and systematic way of accomplishing something".

Methodology is: "A body of practices, procedures, and rules used by those who work in a discipline or engage in an inquiry; a set of working methods".

See the difference? See why saying methodology, because it sounds more important since its longer and since it has that nifty "logy" ending, does not make you sound smarter? Method is a perfectly nice word, a good word, even.

Answer.com even has a helpful usage note on this point:

USAGE NOTE Methodology can properly refer to the theoretical analysis of the methods appropriate to a field of study or to the body of methods and principles particular to a branch of knowledge. In this sense, one may speak of objections to the methodology of a geographic survey (that is, objections dealing with the appropriateness of the methods used) or of the methodology of modern cognitive psychology (that is, the principles and practices that underlie research in the field). In recent years, however, methodology has been increasingly used as a pretentious substitute for method in scientific and technical contexts, as in The oil company has not yet decided on a methodology for restoring the beaches. People may have taken to this practice by influence of the adjective methodological to mean “pertaining to methods.” Methodological may have acquired this meaning because people had already been using the more ordinary adjective methodical to mean “orderly, systematic.” But the misuse of methodology obscures an important conceptual distinction between the tools of scientific investigation (properly methods) and the principles that determine how such tools are deployed and interpreted.

Let us turn our attention to another confusing substitution we often see: difference and differential. They do not mean the same thing.

Difference: "The quality or condition of being unlike or dissimilar."

Differential: "Of, relating to, or showing a difference"

Again, see the difference? One is the whole shooting match and the other is, basically, the measurement of the difference. People can't tell the difference between red and blue when they are color blind. Good. People can't tell the differential between red and blue, etc. Bad.

“‘When I use a word,’ Humpty Dumpty said, ‘it means just what I choose it to mean—neither more nor less.’”

Rant concluded. Please go about your normal activities. Nothing to see here. Move along, move along. My medication ought to be kicking it any second now, and when it does, I am certain it will be impactful*.

*Another time, soon, we will talk about these horrid creations. Impactful. *shudder*

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1 Impactful: adj. Describing a painful oral condition. Did I get it right?

Posted by: Jim at December 02, 2005 01:31 PM (tyQ8y)

2 A gentleman at my place of employment uses this mind-numbing horror on a daily, sometimes hourly, basis: "We should have picked up on that. There were tattle-tale signs everywhere." *wince*

Posted by: Jennifer at December 02, 2005 02:08 PM (jl9h0)

3 One could posit that the person at Jennifer's place of employment may be called many things, but hardly a gentleman... My latest pet peeve: "That's a great starting point. Now we need to flush it out". Not only big words are misused...

Posted by: GrammarQueen at December 02, 2005 03:49 PM (glf8i)

4 It's all I can do to keep from bashing my head on the keyboard when I see "definitely" spelled "definately". Same for using "reigns" instead of "reins", i.e., "pulling in the reigns". NO NO NO! It's "reins"! REINS! Oh and "Irregardless". Don't get me started... OH! WAIT! Mission Statement! "Here is our Mission Statement". Remember those? GAHHHH!

Posted by: Amber at December 02, 2005 04:57 PM (zQE5D)

5 "Utilize" instead of "use." "Dialogue" (as a verb) rather than "speak" or "talk."

Posted by: JohnL at December 02, 2005 05:56 PM (YVul2)

6 "Architected"...I don't even think it's a real word. The team 'architected' a solution for the problem we were having. I know an incredibly bright woman who uses the word 'sale' incorrectly. "After the first of the year, I'm going to sale my vehicle." I thought it was a one time thing, but she's used it several times.

Posted by: Howard at December 03, 2005 09:14 AM (/1r0l)

7 My biggest pet peeve is when people use "either" when they mean "each". Example: "I'm going to put an end table at either side of the sofa," when they actually mean that they are putting an end table at each side; two end tables. "Either" mean one or the other, dagnabbit!

Posted by: Tuning Spork at December 03, 2005 03:27 PM (O857Y)

8 "Irregardless" ... AAAAARRRRGGH!!!!

Posted by: Cathy at December 03, 2005 11:59 PM (Oq01x)

9 "Marketing speak" is the absolute worst: "I'm going to task this to you and check in on it next week" What they should have said was "I'm going to give you this task... " I almost flip whenever I hear that shit.

Posted by: Oorgo at December 06, 2005 01:31 AM (1JIkb)

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Today, at 2:30 p.m., in the Rose Garden at the White House, President Bush will award Corporal Tibor Rubin with the Congressional Medal of Honor.

Rubin immigrated to the United States in 1948 and answered America’s call to duty by volunteering for Army service. By July 1950, Rubin was fighting on the front lines in Korea as an infantryman in I “Item” Company, 3rd Battalion, 8th Cavalry Regiment, 1st Cavalry Division. During numerous engagements, Rubin’s actions to engage the enemy and to tend the wounded, at careless disregard for his own safety, resulted in the heroic defense of his unit. In one such mission, Rubin single-handedly defended a hill for 24 hours, allowing his company to withdraw.

Subsequently, Rubin dragged to safety a critically-wounded Soldier who others had left to perish. When he and surviving members of his unit were captured and interred in North Korean and Chinese Prisoner Of War camps, Rubin drew from his hard-won personal experiences in the Holocaust death camps to find food and provide medical care to his fellow captives. The U.S. Army credits Rubin with saving the lives of more than 40 Soldiers.

Now, 55 years later, Rubin will receive the nationÂ’s highest military honor.

Source.

More information on this American hero is available at the Army's website.

Unofficially, I believe that this is the only award of the MOH to a concentration camp survivor. Also, I believe that this doubles the number of living Jewish MOH recipients to two. I have had the privilege of meeting the other, Colonel Jack Jacobs, on several occasions.

As always, I find myself humbled when I read about men like these.

Posted by: Random Penseur at 10:23 AM | Comments (2) | Add Comment
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Rob reproduced the imposition of sentencing of Richard Reid by Judge Young. Go forth and read it for it is good. A small quote:

Here in this courtroom and courtrooms all across America, the American people will gather to see that justice, individual justice, justice, not
war, individual justice is in fact being done. The very President of the United States, through his officers, come into courtrooms and lay out evidence on which specific matters can be judged and juries of citizens will gather to sit and judge that evidence democratically, to mold and shape and refine our sense of justice.

See that flag, Mr. Reid? That's the flag of the United States of America. That flag will fly there long after this is all forgotten. That flag stands for freedom. And it always will.

Amen.

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I am not an expert on any of the things I am about to write about. I am just a relatively thoughtful guy who sat back on the train this morning, closed his eyes, and tried to sort through some of the broader consequences, broader implications, of this entire mess on the Gulf Coast. I think that this has the potential to wreak havoc far beyond the state borders down there.

First, these cities have municipal bonds. They have to pay interest on these bonds. They issue the bonds to pay for things like sewage projects and canal work and convention centers and all sorts of either infrastructure stuff or for projects that they calculate will throw off big revenues. The bonds are usually serviced by taxes or fees. Fees are paid by the users, like with a sewage project. Taxes are paid by everyone. Taxes are generated as a consequence of economic activity -- sales tax, for example. Where is the revenue going to come from now that the city is a dead man crawling? I know that there are reserves, up to about a year, socked away to continue interest payments, but do you really think that money isn't somehow going to get sucked into something else? What are the consequences when these cities seek bankruptcy protection or just plain default on the debts? Are they going to be able to go to the markets again to raise money? What happens to the people who hold that debt? It isn't enough to say that the bonds are insured because, at the end of the day, someone will bear that cost. Someone sitting in their dry and comfy home in a state far, far away is going to take a hit on their portfolio. Oh, and by the way, who hold munis in the first place? Those on a fixed income -- the elderly.

Second, the national mortgage market will take a hit, I think. Mortgages today are not as they once were. Once upon a time, your local bank lent you money, held your note, serviced your loan, and collected on it or foreclosed if it had to. Today, mortgages are the first step in an exotic financial market where they get converted into pool and tranches and debt is diced and sliced and sold off all over the place. This is a mighty big business, no two ways about it. You, the homeowner may not think about it like that as you write your check, but it is. Rarely do banks lend for their own portfolios anymore. What happens now when there is a national market in the mortgage debt and people have no reason or no ability if they have a reason to continue making payments on a house that doesn't exist anymore and for which insurance may not cover any of the loss. What are the implications for the national market as portions, large portions, of two states default on their mortgage debt? And what the heck do you foreclose on? How do you even find the land now that the river has reclaimed it in places? What will happen to interest rates? Beats the shit out of me. I just assume that there will be a problem.

Third, who is going to repopulate New Orleans? Those who are the most mobile, the best educated, those with the most portable skills, they are going to establish lives elsewhere. I was on the phone yesterday with my kids' nursery school and the director told me that she just got off the phone with a woman from New Orleans who is relocating up to Connecticut. She was calling from a hotel room in Houston. Once these kids get into new schools and the smart and aggressive types get new jobs, are they going to go back? I am skeptical. Highly skeptical. They will wonder whether anything in New Orleans can ever change and they won't take the risk of putting their families back there. So what happens to the city when you have this huge brain drain? You cannot populate the city with the Ninth Ward, those who may lack the skills and the resources to re-establish themselves elsewhere. Not to be a doom sayer, but I am deeply worried about the total eradication of the middle and upper middle class in New Orleans. You can't have a city without these people, at least, not a city people would want to live in.

Fourth, what the hell are the people who have a livelihood tied to the area going to do for money now? Let's take the lawyers for a moment. Law in Louisiana is based on the Napoleonic Code. It is the only place in the country with this kind of law. Lawyers admitted in Louisiana may not be able to really practice anywhere else. And even if they were, where are their clients? Who is going to pay them? What about real estate brokers? They sell local real estate. Well, I'm kind of thinking that market may be a little moribund for awhile. Or. . . Well, take any service provider in a local economy. They are all screwed. Are they all going to go from upper middle class to welfare in three easy steps? Consequences there are huge. First, a new and great strain on a cruddy social welfare system to begin with. Can the system even handle these new people? (Actually, one consequence might be a reform of the system if you suddenly get a lot of well educated people as "clients" of it). Second, where are the taxes going to come from to pay the welfare? If the high earners are not earning, they ain't paying taxes. Enough said, right?

The above is just a start. It is deeply depressing and I kind of have to stop now.

Except for this. Kathy (who I love) has written, in the midst of an excellent post about the anarchy in New Orleans, about the losses suffered by her brother's new car dealership in New Orleans. My heart goes out to them. However, I think Kathy is focusing on the wrong thing. It isn't whether the cars are a total writeoff or whether the dealership building has been damaged. No, the question is: who will be able to afford to buy the cars? What if no one in the economy has any money or jobs to justify credit to buy the cars? If that happens, we as a nation may be facing much greater trouble than we all think.

I hope I'm wrong about all of this. I really do. *sigh*

U P D A T E

Well, so much for being wrong. I read the following things on the Times Picayune Blog this afternoon:

Mortgage Loan Relief Available

Fannie Mae has mortgage relief provisions in place for borrowers in Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Florida and other states facing hardships as a result of widespread damage caused by Hurricane Katrina.

With Fannie Mae's disaster relief provisions, lenders help borrowers in several ways, including suspending mortgage payments for up to three months, reducing the payments for up to 18 months, or in more severe cases, creating longer loan payback plans. Such assistance is provided on a case-by-case basis, and is designed to meet the individual needs of borrowers.

For information on mortgage relief, homeowners who have experienced hardships should contact the lender to whom they send their monthly mortgage payment.

and

Ford Offers Payment Deferrals

Ford Motor Credit Company is offering customers affected by Hurricane Katrina the opportunity to defer up to two vehicle payments.

Under the Disaster Relief Program, customers have the opportunity to defer these monthly payments without paying extension fees. The program is open to customers living in counties that FEMA has declared federal disaster areas as a result of the storm.

Ford Motor Credit customers who are eligible for the Disaster Relief Program should receive letters next week with instructions on how to register. Customers must register within 60 days to qualify. Deferred payments are due at the end of the contract term.

Looks like some of the big lenders are concerned that if they don't permit some form of deferral of payment, the debtors are going to tell them to go f*ck themselves.

What do you think that would do to Ford's stock? Not to mention Ford's corporate bonds?

This is just going to get more and more ugly.

Posted by: Random Penseur at 10:25 AM | Comments (9) | Add Comment
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Viewing this picture just breaks my heart.

The caption read:

Darryl Thompson tries to comfort his daughter Dejanae while waiting for who knows what on the Pontchartrain Expressway, Wednesday, August 31, 2005.

Posted by: Random Penseur at 02:10 PM | Comments (1) | Add Comment
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There I was, this morning, standing on line at the bank, when an older man got on line behind me. On his lapel, he was wearing a CIB -- a Combat Infantry Badge, an honor given to those who have served in combat. I am a respectful sort by nature. My mom kind of beat that into me. So, I asked this man if he'd like to go in front of me on line and we had the following conversation:

Me: I see that you are wearing the CIB. May I offer you my place in line?

Him: That's very kind of you. I'm also 91 years old.

Me: Well, you certainly don't look it. [And he really didn't]

Him: Yes, I was 30 years old in WW II.

Me: Is that where you earned your CIB?

Him: Sure was. I fought at Omaha Beach and with Patton. I was even with British troops during the Battle of the Bulge. They were something else. Can you believe that every day at 4:00, they stopped their tanks, got out, and made tea? Couldn't believe it. Tea. They were tough little bastards, though, gotta give 'em that.

And with that, he was called to the next teller, although he thanked me for letting him cut ahead and we shook hands. I actually shook hands with someone who fought at Omaha Beach. Like I said in the title to this, you never know where courtesy is going to lead you or what interesting conversations you can have. That bit about the Brits was, I thought, priceless.

Posted by: Random Penseur at 11:35 AM | Comments (6) | Add Comment
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